The best of the year always comes just before the fall with the first Sunday of the NFL season. As a Cincinnati Bearcats fan, coming off a heartbreaking second half collapse, I need this Sunday. Here’s some thoughts I have for today.

The matchups – so far this NFL season, I am 1-1 with my game picks, I was confident in a Chiefs win, but I was expecting the Packers to also win. To date, the favorites are 2-0. Luckily, it looks like Jordan Love will make it back this season, but this reminds me of my mantra for week 1, let’s hope everyone stays healthy and makes it to next week. In 2023, we had way too much injuries that effected stars for bulk portions of the season, especially, out of the quarterback position (Rodgers, Burrow, Herbert, Cousins…). Let’s not repeat in 2024.

My picks for Week #1 (1 pm games)

• Dolphins -3.5 (1.6 units)
• Saints -3.5 (1.1 units)
• Colts +3 (1.1 unit)
• Cardinals / Bills Over 46.5 (.6 unit)
• Patriots / Bengals Under 41 (.6 unit)
• Giants ML (.6 unit)
• Titans +4 (.6 unit)

The -3.5 bets always scream trap, but I do believe the Dolphins and Saints will take care of business at home. I expect the Bengals / Patriots to be low scoring with the Patriots limited offensive weapons and the Bengals dealing with injuries and absences already in week 1. The Cardinals / Bills have the potential to be a shootout to start the season. The Colts haven’t won in week 1 since 2013, which in a putrid stat to use since players and coaching have turned over multiple times in the last 11 years. Finally, I see the Bears winning, but I feel like it could be a 3 point victory with the Titans keeping them close as they work through their new office and the Giants pulling of a win, at home, against the Vikings as the find footing with Sam Darnold at QB.

My player props for Week #1 (1 pm games) includes the following (at .6 unit):

• Chase Brown O14.5 receiving yards
• Zach Moss TD +130
• Dalton Kincaid O49.5 receiving yards
• Marvin Harrison TD +170
• Stefon Diggs +195
• Travis Etienne O58.5 rushing yards
• Kirk Cousins 2+ passing TDs +105
• Caleb Williams TD +250
• Alvin Kamara O28.5 receiving yards
• Diontae Johnson O53.5 receiving yards
• Devin Singletary TD +170

In week 1, it is best to check out major rookie debuts and new players adjusting to new teams, coaches always seem to want to get them involved from the start. In the end, you want to start the season off on a good start, so lets get momentum rolling with these players for the start of the season

Let’s enjoy a healthy start to week #1!

Time for the rarity of the season, with an open week for the NFL, it is Sunday night college football game between USC and LSU.

First, any good sport has the recognize last night’s results, credit to me as they weren’t good at all!

• Alabama / Western Kentucky – Over 59.5 (1.1 units) – Win (Yay!)
• Texas A&M -3 (2.1 units) – Loss (I bought the new era hype)
• Oregon / Idaho – Over 60.5 (1.1 units) – Loss (Oregon struggled to score)
• Georgia State – +20.5 (1.5 units) – Loss (GSU struggled to get in end zone)

After Saturday: 1-3 (-3.7.), 13-11 (0.6 units). Cannot miss on high investments.

As for tonight, both LSU and USC have changes at the QB position, but both teams come off seasons with porous defenses. Both QBs (Garrett Nussmeier and Miller Moss) did get experiences in their bowl games as they replaced top NFL drafted QBs Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams. As for the matchup on the whole, LSU is favored, but USC has the advantage of the neutral site being closer to their stadium. I think there’s logical perspectives all around for LSU, USC, over, and under. My heart wants to do something contrarian and take the under or USC, but I don’t think that’s right. However, I cannot stay away, I am going with LSU and dominance of the SEC. I think with the transition from Daniels to Nussmeier, defense will be a greater priority, and that’s something LSU and SEC teams excel at and the talent will be enough to stifle USC. Give me LSU -4 for 2.1 units..

I forgot this isn’t easy…. let’s check in on our bets… 4-2 (+5.3 units) to date:

• Georgia -10.5 (1 unit) – Win (Excellent call, Georgia’s dominance)
• Georgia / Clemson Over 49 (2.75 units) – Loss (Late move, dud from Clemson)
• Penn State/ West Virginia Over 49 (2 units) – Loss (This was close, dud WVU)
• Penn State -7.5 (.75 unit) – Win (Right call, WVU isn’t ready yet)
• Vanderbilt +13.5 (.75 unit) – Win (Not just a win, but a ML win)
• Tennessee Over 48.5 Points Scored (.75 unit) – Win (Almost enough in 1H)
• Virginia Tech / Vanderbilt Under 49.5 (1 unit) – Loss (Late back & forth ended it)
• South Dakota State +13 (1 unit) – Loss (OK State much better than Colorado)

After a bad early afternoon: 4-4 (-4.1 units), 8-6 (+1.2 units).

• Florida +2.5 (1.1 unit) – Loss (Horrible, awful, no good Florida Gators)
• Ohio State / Akron O56 (1 unit) – Win (Deserved the Pick-6 after waits on overs)
• Northwestern -3 (1.2 units) – Win (The gap between B10 and MAC rings strong)
• Georgia Southern +13.5 (1.2 units) – Win (A shootout that tugged at the heart)
• California -20.5 (.7 units) – Loss (So close, a slow start from Cal do not help)
• Mississippi State -26.5 (.7 units) – Win (Matched last yr UC/EKU game)

After afternoon: 4-2 (+1.9), 12-8 (+3.1 units). A nice recovery for early games.

Some Early Reactions (May be Overreactions, May be on Target)

1. The programs you know well, the traditions you know: Florida is in trouble, they are going to need a regime change. This was a program competing for national titles with Urban Meyer (better coach than character). In contrast, Miami Florida may be legit and Texas may just be completely back as a dominating national presence with 2 QBs who could start on major programs – Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning. Some people will talk about Nebraska after a great start from true freshman Dylan Raiola.
2. And yet, it may just all come down to Georgia: Clemson could win the ACC. It isn’t a great conference. Florida State lost to embarrassing fashion to Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech, a conference dark horse, couldn’t hold its own against the worst team in the SEC in Vanderbilt. But on the field, isn’t close between the top of the ACC and the top of the SEC. For all we know, Clemson, as they play today, would get demolished by Alabama and Texas as well as Mississippi, Missouri, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas A&M. I hope the 12 team tournament adds parity, but days like today make you think, well, there’s only a handful of teams that can win it all (give me – Georgia, Alabama, Texas, and Ohio State, you can have the field).
3. Don’t forget your own pain: Cincinnati won 38-20. The offense looked good, but will have few quirks to work out with penalties, turnovers, and sloppy play as expected in week 1, but the defense gave up a few big plays on 3rd & long there were some extended drives. Hopefully, this can be worked out in practice, but if this indicative of anything, you don’t want to see this before non-conference games against Pittsburgh (who played well against Penn State) and Miami Ohio (who lost and grinded against Northwestern) before a much harder conference slate where you could be the underdog in most games. Last year, I thought things remained the same when we beat up on EKU, so this year, I am more or less worried if we can make a run for a bowl game.

For tonight, I am going to focus on a smaller slate with larger bets.

• Alabama / Western Kentucky – Over 59.5 (1.1 units)
• Texas A&M -3 (2.1 units)
• Oregon / Idaho – Over 60.5 (1.1 units)
• Georgia State – +20.5 (1.5 units)

It is week 1 and like with Ohio State (as well as Georgia, Penn State, and Tennessee), I think expect their offenses to make enough of statement as well as get enough points from their opponents to cover the overs. For Georgia State, I expect Georgia Tech to have a little rust considering a week ago today they won a major game against Florida State in Ireland. Yes, they will win, but asking them to win by 3 TDs against an in-city rival is a lot to expect. Finally, Texas A&M, their stadium, although culturally mocked, is one of the toughest environments to play in. Considering their financial investment and dedicated fanbase, someday, they will turn the corner and have a greater national presence. A 12-team tournament will help them out a ton. I expect them to beat ND, who has an easy ride to playoffs, in a coin-flip matchup.

Stay strong everyone, we have a little more football to watch!

As I start my afternoon post, I have no winning or losing bets yet. There’s a few I feel good about and there’s one particularly important one that I feel really foolish about. I’ll add more details as the early slate of games wrap up.

Here’s my picks for the afternoon games (3:30 pm to 7:00 pm):

• Florida +2.5 (1.1 unit)
• Ohio State / Akron Over 56 (1 unit)
• Northwestern -3 (1.2 units)
• Georgia Southern +13.5 (1.2 units)
• California -20.5 (.7 units)
• Mississippi State -26.5 (.7 units)

I like Florida in a matchup at home. Miami Florida is hyped this season in what is looking like a weakened ACC, but returns an experienced veteran QB in Graham Mertz, who put together a 20 TD, 3 INT season last year. I worry slightly with Bill O’Brien and his conservative offense approach in a Ohio State’s revamped offense debut, but I think they want to set a tone after recent dominance of Michigan and their investment in recruiting while also noting Akron is not a very good team. In the case of Northwestern, I recognize Miami of Ohio has a good team, but it is hard to bet against Big Ten team (even a lower one) in a coinflip game at home. As for Georgia Southern, similar to the Vanderbilt situation, they are almost a 2 score underdog at home against a team in transition and trying to figure out who they will be this season in Boise State.

Finally, I was called to California and Mississippi State by looking at their traditional success in opening day matchups as well as the struggles of their opponents against Power 4 schools. I think both could win by 30, so this is personally worth the investment.

Last night we went 2-1 (+4.4) with a huge win with the first TD by Chez Mellusi and the under hitting in Florida Atlantic vs Michigan State with ease. As for the loss, admittedly, I overthought a very popular pick in Stanford at home against TCU +8.5. However, it was very close to a win, if Stanford’s game ending field drive was cut short, stopped, or picked off, we’d be talking about a win right now. Furthermore, the Stanford offense, especially the passing game, started off much stronger than expected, so TCU was forced to fight back for the win.

For the season, we are now 4-2 (+5.3), but the challenge truly starts today. Let’s look at the games that are calling my attention for today:

• Georgia -10.5 (1 unit)
• Georgia / Clemson Over 49 (2.75 units)
• Penn State/ West Virginia Over 49 (2 units)
• Penn State -7.5 (.75 unit)
• Vanderbilt +13.5 (.75 unit)
• Tennessee Over 48.5 Points Scored (.75 unit)
• Virginia Tech / Vanderbilt Under 49.5 (1 unit)
• South Dakota State +13 (1 unit)

We have ten units in action for this early slate. Here’s my logic on the games at hand. First, I don’t love Georgia and Clemson as a noon game for shootout, but I am most confident in this game being a high scoring affair. Carson Beck (a frontrunner for the Heisman) and Cade Klubnik (a former top recruit who’s now experienced and an upperclassmen) are going to look to start their season on a high note. I think this game will be close going into 3rd quarter, but in time, I do feel Georgia will start to pull away even though they are down starting running back Trevor Etienne with a one game suspension for a March DUI.

As for the Penn State / West Virginia game, this screams of TCU / Stanford, but historically Penn State has dominated this matchup and they are led by an experienced QB in Drew Allar who has the most passing yards 2631 among returning Big Ten QBs, but also have a one-two punch at running in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton with 1600+ rushing yards in 2023. This situation plays out very similarly for West Virginia with a returning QB with over 2400 passing yards and three leading rushers that combined for around 2400 yards in 2023. Both teams are looking for their best options in the passing game, but Penn State has had much greater success with their defense, that’s why although I find this game going over, I do feel Penn State can win by more than one score. As with the Georgia / Clemson game, I feel better with the over than the outcome, I am certainly pushing it with both best.

As for my other picks, I could see sluggish start to the season for Virginia Tech and Vanderbilt resulting in a game that shouldn’t be so close with not a lot of touchdowns on the field and more punts than you want to see. I think the Tennessee offense wants to set the tone in a matchup against instate rival Chattanooga, selfishly, I would prefer 47.5, but I think they can find their way to 7 touchdowns while starting season strongly for hyped quarterback Nico Iamaleava who had a strong performance in the bowl game against a very good defense in Iowa. Finally, I could not miss the Dakota train against, they are playing a much better team than Colorado in Oklahoma State, but South Dakota St dominates the FCS, so they are primed to keep this a one score game.

We will check back in later this afternoon… full day of interesting games to talk about including Miami Florida / Florida and Notre Dame / Texas A&M.

Hey, we got ourselves a big win, the under for North Carolina and Minnesota hit with ease bringing us to 2-1 on the season for +0.9 units. Cannot complain when you are profiting. I was certainly right in my thoughts about Travis Hunter and my belief that he is the most talented player in college football. Colorado certainly has some issues that will plague their Big 12 return, but North Dakota State has a strong program that would compete nicely in the FBS. On another note, I was quite wrong hyping up the Minnesota kicker, with 2 misses, including the game winner, he’s already on his way to a disappointing season that being said I do not envy kickers, I always feel ill when and college football kicker misses a significant kick, I hate when it comes down to them. Some other things I noticed – Western Carolina held tight with NC State for 3 quarters, it will be interested to see how both these programs respond. Rutgers looked like they won in a rout, but for a half of football that offense looks less than desirable. Bowling Green and Toledo both won in easy fashion, this author hypes that the Glass Bowl and thinks both teams are enroute to bowl berths this season.

Tonight’s slate reflects 6 teams with the most prominent debut #16 ranked Oklahoma, but the best game on paper seems to be the matchup with TCU traveling to Stanford. A popular pick tonight is Stanford +8.5 at home and hosting TCU Projections show TCU as mid of the road Big 12 team, but Stanford is expected to be at the bottom of the conference. TCU returns 16 starters as well as a QB with experience down the stretch in Josh Hoover (2200 yards, 15 passing TDs, 9 INTs). Stanford as 18 returning starts with 2 QBs on the roster with experience, but no one stands out for strong performance, thus, the expectation would align with a natural step forward. I’ll be honest the more I dive into this game, the most I want to go the contrarian route, so here I am, let’s go with TCU at 1.1 units at -8.5 (an ugly number that makes it all the more enticing when the opponent isn’t good.

Where I do have a bet is the Wisconsin game, where I took the starting RB Chez Mellusi, the senior, to have the first TD of the game at 0.8 units for +550. They do have a few other options at RB, but this game sounds like one where the first TD comes from Wisconsin and considering it is Wisconsin with a coach that loves to grind out games like Luke Fickell, it seemed like a nice odds for a TD. As for the game, I’ll stay away from the over / under and the point spread.

The last game I am going with today is the matchup between Michigan State and Florida Atlantic, tonight seems the appearances of a few potential conference dwellers in Michigan State, Stanford, and the unmentioned Duke. Both Florida Atlantic and Michigan State have returning offenses that were towards the bottom in their conference. Michigan State has 15 returning starters from a team that had an offense that scored only 108 points in 9 conference games. Yes, they have a new QB and a head coach in Jonathan Smith who brought in transfers after a great season with Oregon State (their last as a Power 5 school), but this job is a couple years away from a successful rebuild. I am taking another one of my famous unders with Michigan State and Florida Atlantic under 44.5 for 1.1 units.

Alright, time to prepare for tomorrow, big slate of games, so I have much homework to do. Let’s enjoy another night of college football (while following along with the MLB playoffs hunt and HS football matchups).

As I sit here watching the start of Thursday night football, I am reminded how there’s bound to be matchup’s tonight where the FCS Defense can shutdown a floundering offense. Rutgers may likely win this game by a few scores, but not with the dominances expected and certainly with sputtering offense to start.

There are 22 games tonight, certainly no matchups with ranked teams, but we do have one out of conference matchup between “Power 4” schools and several high ranked FCS schools deserving more attention.

Let’s start with the big game for tonight, North Carolina travels to Minnesota for an opening week matchup with a spread that has wavered near pick’em for most of the week (current UNC -2). Let’s take a closer look at each team. For North Carolina, it is known fact that Drake Maye is off to the NFL to backup Jacoby Brisett (errr… for now) with the New England Patriots, but less known is UNC returns the best running back in the conference in Omarion Hampton who netted over 1500 yards from scrimmage and 15 TDs in 2023. They also return 3 of their 4 leading receivers from Maye’s offense. However, the offense line is going through a full transition with only 59 career starts and 49 of those from their starting center and are struggling to tie themselves to one specific QB. As you can expect, a team with a top QB last season that finished 8-5 had lackluster support at defense, but does return a linebacker with over 100 tackles in Power Echols and an edge rusher in Kamion Rucker with 15 tackles for a loss and 8.5 QB sacks. In the end, projections show UNC steadily in the middle of the ACC standings. As for Minnesota, they also return the top rusher in the conference in yards per game in Darius Taylor (EDIT – missed in the initial write-up, but Taylor is out tonight with back issues, getting on the field has been the challenge in his career to date), but his 799 rushing yards and 5 TDs are only over 6 games as well as their top receiver in Daniel Jackson with 831 receiving yards and 8 TDs. But like UNC, Minnesota is turning the play over to a new QB with a less ceremonial transition. Defensively Minnesota best returning player is Jah Joyner who had 7.5 sacks as defensive end, but where Minnesota excels most is in the kicking game with Dragan Kesich who was 23 for 27 and a long of 54. This leads me to my pick, it all comes down to transition at QB and the solid running game, thus, for that reason alone my pick of the night is Minnesota / North Carolina Under 52.5 at 2.2 units. As for who wins, I started with Minnesota and then went to UNC and cannot really feel good about anyone, so I’ll stay away.

As for the rest of the evening, I will be bouncing games and watching & learning about top teams. The matchup that interests me the most is Colorado versus North Dakota State. I could see both sides of the line hitting, but I do want to see is the impact of Coach Deion Sanders on his superstars QB Shedeur Sanders and WR/CB Travis Hunter. The expectations of both players and the team is high. I worry about the Sanders father and son combination and I feel they could be closer to the bottom of the Big 12, but Deion does strive at times when people doubt him, so maybe that’s motivation. What I do believe, is Travis Hunter, by pure talent and opportunity will set himself up as a top ten pick in the NFL draft.

I may add bets tonight, but I will likely just observe and learn about the teams and come with even more on Friday and Saturday. Football is back, let’s enjoy it!

On Saturday evening, well multitasking a trip back home, I successfully (per my opinion) completed my first fantasy football redraft of the 2024 season. In my 12-team PPR league with 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, and the less important Defense and Kicker, I started my draft from the 9 slot.

In my preparation, I determined 8 players to be desirable for the position I was in, so I figured I would get no one I wanted in this slot. Based on this league I ranked the players as follows: 3 RBs (McCaffrey, Hall, and Robinson) and 5 WRs (Lamb, Chase, Jefferson, St. Brown, and Hill). I was doubtful I would get 1, so I was prepared for one of Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, AJ Brown, and Garrett Wilson. With 2 picks to go until I was up, the seventh slot of draft’s options included Chase and Jefferson, if one fell to me I was going to be thrilled. And then Chase went 7th, but in my shock Jonathan Taylor went 8th, sitting there in front of me was Justin Jefferson. His QB situation isn’t popular, but we’ve seen talented, young wide receivers overcome their QB situation. Best example that comes to behind – Calvin Johnson in 2008 had 1331 receiving yards with 12 receiving touchdowns and a top 3 finish at his position. The negative was he had only 78 receptions on 151 targets, but the positive was he excelled on a team that went 0-16 with quarterbacks Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper, and Jon Kitna. Yeah, there’s a chance that AJ Brown or Garrett Wilson outplays Jefferson, but Jefferson could outplay anyone of his top 5 counterparts at the position.

As I prepared for the 2nd pick, draft slot 16, my attention was on the running back position. The only way I would go into wide receiver was for the aforementioned Brown and Wilson (they were of course gone). My preferred running back was Gibbs (gone) and another top running back Barkley was also drafted. At my pick, my choices were down to Travis Etienne and Kyren Williams. I went with Travis Etienne, I had him ranked in a higher tier, so it wasn’t much for me to think about. But here’s my logic, Kyren Williams’ numbers are what you expect from a running back and I wish Etienne would get more carries, but this logic is based on 2023, not 2024. Williams has a highly draft, national champion, in Blake Corum, in his backfield. The Rams offense is a revolving door of running backs especially in the time of Sean McVey. Consider the following running backs who’ve been fantasy relevant on the Rams in the last five years – Todd Gurley, Darrell Henderson, Sony Michel, Cam Akers, and now Kyren Williams. Yes, Williams, had the most dominant season, but McVey is quick to play the hot hand, so don’t be surprised in a must win Week 13 matchup Corum is out carrying Williams 20 to 6. With Etienne, I don’t think there’s many other legitimate options, and I think with the targets going to just Engram and Kirk with Ridley gone, the offense will go more and more to the run.

To not go too far, I won’t spend much more time with the rest of my draft, but I do have a few other points I want to make. Last year, I chased late RB2’s that were undervalued, this year, I realized that there are more WRs I would be comfortable with at WR2 and the Flex then at RB2, so I need to take a RB when I can. In the 3rd round, my highest ranked running back is Rachaad White, another running back I love for his workhorse opportunities. In the 4th round, I was content taking a wide receiver, the best on my board was DK Metcalf, but then sitting there my number 1 tight end, and with only Laporta off the board, I had to take my namesake-ish in Travis Kelce. Down the stretch last year, including the playoffs, Kelce was putting up WR1 numbers, yes, he’s a year older, but the Chiefs offense still goes through him and coming into this season he is much healthier than he was last year (causing his very slow start). And my bet paid off when Andrews, McBride, Kincaid, and Engram followed close behind. Basically, if I didn’t take Kelce, I would have gone Engram, but I would have been devastated to miss him by a single pick.

Now on to the rest of my draft, I looked for players who could be RB1 or WR1 based on talent, past experience, and in some cases opportunity. The players I collected in slot were Tee Higgins (motivated for a new contract and Chase’s absences), George Pickens (talent overcoming the QB situation), Austin Ekeler (he did before, he could do it again), Keenan Allen (not too long ago a WR1 with an incredible opportunity for one last ride before his last contract), Nick Chubb (probably at the top of the list of athletes you trust returning to form from massive injuries), Courtland Sutton (the passing offense has upgraded and he’s the number 1 with lionshare of catches). There is one position I didn’t mention, and it is the one I kept waiting for – the quarterback slot. Last year in this league I had Josh Allen who fell to be late in the early 4th round (like Kelce did this year). This season he went in the third along with Josh Allen and then Jalen Hurts in the fourth before I took Kelce. I did look at Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson before Travis Kelce, but I felt Kelce was too good at his position to pass on, which considering my options would have been George Kittle or Kyle Pitts, I am happy I avoided that significant deviation. I then watched Mahomes, Jackson, and Anthony Richardson go and I kept waiting. My only potential regret is I probably should have took Burrow in the 5th and waiting on wide receiver in the 6th (Higgins could have still been there), because I just missed Burrow by a single pick (a player who I think could win the MVP in 2024, I will certainly get him elsewhere). From there, I didn’t mind Kyler Murray, but when I looked closer at his stats in a 6-pt passing TD league, I felt there were other QB’s worthy of that slot. I kept waiting and waiting and finally my move, I took Caleb Williams in the 10th, Justin Herbert in the 16th, and then Jared Goff in free agency (with Chubb on IR). I think 1 of those guys are bound to be a top 8 QB with consideration of great opportunity (Williams), great talent (Herbert), and a mixture of both (Goff).

In the end, I deem this a successful draft for the first of the season, I give myself a B+. I worry a little bit about the QB slot and feel I have a slight gap at WR2 / Flex, but I am thrilled with my depth and how I managed the RB / TE position. Now, I just wait, a week and half to fret lineup decisions and see the scores roll-in, but for a few more leagues, I will enjoy the best part of fantasy football, draft season!

Week 0 Predictions went 1-1 (-1.1 units)

• Florida State -10.5 (2 units) – Loss (0 units)

• Florida State / Georgia Tech Under 55.5 (1 unit) – Win (1.9 units)

Well, I was right with my praise of Georgia Tech and fear of their passing game, but when the running game is dominant, the one dimensional offense is meaningless. For the rest of the season, Georgia Tech has one of the toughest schedules in the sport with road games against Lousville, Georgia, and Virgina Tech and home outings with Notre Dame, Miami Florida, and NC State, the overreaction of a pathway to an ACC title seems quite unlikely. Best case, they start off 4-0 and earn a top 25 ranking with an eventual pathway to bowl and a 8 win season. Anything more, and we are talking about the biggest surprise team in college football. If I had to guess, I think Georgia Tech gets to a Bowl at a 7-5 record.

The biggest story of the game, is the biggest QB prospect in the class that CJ Stroud was ranked number 2, in DJ Uiagalelei. He was efficient, but not really effective, yes on the surface 70% pass completion and no interceptions looks great, but for a top prospect on a team with playoff revenge aspirations your QB needs to throw multiple touchdown passes and at least over 200 yards. I feel this game could motivate the entire team, but I really thought last year’s debacle was enough to drive a strong performance for the start. Now Florida State proceeds to similarly difficult schedule with road games against SMU, Miami Florida, and Notre Dame while home performance with Clemson, Florida, and next week against Coach Mike Norvell’s old team in Memphis. Don’t look now, but if Florida State keeps up this performance, they may also be looking at a 7-5 season. More than likely, I see Florida State going 9-3 with losses against Notre Dame and Clemson, which is enough to keep them out of the playoffs.

The rest of the games were actually better in reality than on paper (well except Hawaii’s dominance, but a team from Delaware certainly enjoyed the trip there) with covers by both underdogs in Nevada and New Mexico, however, this wasn’t enough. Especially, in the case of New Mexico with blew a 31-14 lead at the end of the third quarter against a FCS opponent. Nevertheless, as someone who pined for better matchups (and still would have liked them) expectation versus reality of Week 0 excelled with flying colors. Enjoyable football for all.

Now what did I learn this week? As a competitive gambler who wants to turn a profit (which by the way, only gamble within your means and consult professional help if you are struggling. For myself, I keep very manageable units and work with the money already in my accounts.), here’s my major takeaways.

#1 – Keep an eye on the under – The under went 3-1 this weekend. It isn’t fun, but the reality is the general public wants the excitement of the over, they want high score games, and they often bet with their heart not their mind. In the case of Florida State and Georgia Tech, the first quarter screamed over, but as you go through those initial drives, defenses adjust and offenses are left scrambling, it isn’t fool proof, but in the early season with the right matchups the unders when even when they look lower than you would expect (ala Iowa last season).

#2 – The underdogs are motivated – This one, I didn’t see, as the underdogs went 3-1 this weekend. I stayed away from SMU, because the spread looked too big. I stayed away from Montana State, because I couldn’t believe an FCS school was favored. I did go with Florida State, but in the back of my mind I saw rushing numbers, on both sides of the ball, with promise for Georgia Tech. If I would have touched these thoughts, my outcomes would have been positive. It doesn’t always work, but sometimes when you look at a side of a bet and see it is a stay away, you may just want to bet the other side of it.

I think that closes the book for Week #0, it is an overreaction, but Georgia Tech is a top #25 team and Florida State is not. Let’s use the on field performance in this season’s rankings and temporarily say Georgia Tech is currently in the playoff hunt. But there’s another 100 plus teams with something to say this coming weekend and doesn’t that make college football great? See you later this week with an outlook for week #1 (and maybe some season long predictions).