Week 0 Predictions went 1-1 (-1.1 units)
- Florida State -10.5 (2 units) – Loss (0 units)
- Florida State / Georgia Tech Under 55.5 (1 unit) – Win (1.9 units)
Well, I was right with my praise of Georgia Tech and fear of their passing game, but when the running game is dominant, the one dimensional offense is meaningless. For the rest of the season, Georgia Tech has one of the toughest schedules in the sport with road games against Lousville, Georgia, and Virgina Tech and home outings with Notre Dame, Miami Florida, and NC State, the overreaction of a pathway to an ACC title seems quite unlikely. Best case, they start off 4-0 and earn a top 25 ranking with an eventual pathway to bowl and a 8 win season. Anything more, and we are talking about the biggest surprise team in college football. If I had to guess, I think Georgia Tech gets to a Bowl at a 7-5 record.
The biggest story of the game, is the biggest QB prospect in the class that CJ Stroud was ranked number 2, in DJ Uiagalelei. He was efficient, but not really effective, yes on the surface 70% pass completion and no interceptions looks great, but for a top prospect on a team with playoff revenge aspirations your QB needs to throw multiple touchdown passes and at least over 200 yards. I feel this game could motivate the entire team, but I really thought last year’s debacle was enough to drive a strong performance for the start. Now Florida State proceeds to similarly difficult schedule with road games against SMU, Miami Florida, and Notre Dame while home performance with Clemson, Florida, and next week against Coach Mike Norvell’s old team in Memphis. Don’t look now, but if Florida State keeps up this performance, they may also be looking at a 7-5 season. More than likely, I see Florida State going 9-3 with losses against Notre Dame and Clemson, which is enough to keep them out of the playoffs.
The rest of the games were actually better in reality than on paper (well except Hawaii’s dominance, but a team from Delaware certainly enjoyed the trip there) with covers by both underdogs in Nevada and New Mexico, however, this wasn’t enough. Especially, in the case of New Mexico with blew a 31-14 lead at the end of the third quarter against a FCS opponent. Nevertheless, as someone who pined for better matchups (and still would have liked them) expectation versus reality of Week 0 excelled with flying colors. Enjoyable football for all.
Now what did I learn this week? As a competitive gambler who wants to turn a profit (which by the way, only gamble within your means and consult professional help if you are struggling. For myself, I keep very manageable units and work with the money already in my accounts.), here’s my major takeaways.
#1 – Keep an eye on the under – The under went 3-1 this weekend. It isn’t fun, but the reality is the general public wants the excitement of the over, they want high score games, and they often bet with their heart not their mind. In the case of Florida State and Georgia Tech, the first quarter screamed over, but as you go through those initial drives, defenses adjust and offenses are left scrambling, it isn’t fool proof, but in the early season with the right matchups the unders when even when they look lower than you would expect (ala Iowa last season).
#2 – The underdogs are motivated – This one, I didn’t see, as the underdogs went 3-1 this weekend. I stayed away from SMU, because the spread looked too big. I stayed away from Montana State, because I couldn’t believe an FCS school was favored. I did go with Florida State, but in the back of my mind I saw rushing numbers, on both sides of the ball, with promise for Georgia Tech. If I would have touched these thoughts, my outcomes would have been positive. It doesn’t always work, but sometimes when you look at a side of a bet and see it is a stay away, you may just want to bet the other side of it.
I think that closes the book for Week #0, it is an overreaction, but Georgia Tech is a top #25 team and Florida State is not. Let’s use the on field performance in this season’s rankings and temporarily say Georgia Tech is currently in the playoff hunt. But there’s another 100 plus teams with something to say this coming weekend and doesn’t that make college football great? See you later this week with an outlook for week #1 (and maybe some season long predictions).
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