Week #1 College Football – Check-In, Overreactions, and Tonight’s Games

I forgot this isn’t easy…. let’s check in on our bets… 4-2 (+5.3 units) to date:

  • Georgia -10.5 (1 unit) – Win (Excellent call, Georgia’s dominance)
  • Georgia / Clemson Over 49 (2.75 units) – Loss (Late move, dud from Clemson)
  • Penn State/ West Virginia Over 49 (2 units) – Loss (This was close, dud WVU)
  • Penn State -7.5 (.75 unit) – Win (Right call, WVU isn’t ready yet)
  • Vanderbilt +13.5 (.75 unit) – Win (Not just a win, but a ML win)
  • Tennessee Over 48.5 Points Scored (.75 unit) – Win (Almost enough in 1H)
  • Virginia Tech / Vanderbilt Under 49.5 (1 unit) – Loss (Late back & forth ended it)
  • South Dakota State +13 (1 unit) – Loss (OK State much better than Colorado)

After a bad early afternoon: 4-4 (-4.1 units), 8-6 (+1.2 units).

  • Florida +2.5 (1.1 unit) – Loss (Horrible, awful, no good Florida Gators)
  • Ohio State / Akron O56 (1 unit) – Win (Deserved the Pick-6 after waits on overs)
  • Northwestern -3 (1.2 units) – Win (The gap between B10 and MAC rings strong)
  • Georgia Southern +13.5 (1.2 units) – Win (A shootout that tugged at the heart)
  • California -20.5 (.7 units) – Loss (So close, a slow start from Cal do not help)
  • Mississippi State -26.5 (.7 units) – Win (Matched last yr UC/EKU game)

After afternoon: 4-2 (+1.9), 12-8 (+3.1 units). A nice recovery for early games.

Some Early Reactions (May be Overreactions, May be on Target)

  1. The programs you know well, the traditions you know: Florida is in trouble, they are going to need a regime change. This was a program competing for national titles with Urban Meyer (better coach than character). In contrast, Miami Florida may be legit and Texas may just be completely back as a dominating national presence with 2 QBs who could start on major programs – Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning. Some people will talk about Nebraska after a great start from true freshman Dylan Raiola.
  2. And yet, it may just all come down to Georgia: Clemson could win the ACC. It isn’t a great conference. Florida State lost to embarrassing fashion to Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech, a conference dark horse, couldn’t hold its own against the worst team in the SEC in Vanderbilt. But on the field, isn’t close between the top of the ACC and the top of the SEC. For all we know, Clemson, as they play today, would get demolished by Alabama and Texas as well as Mississippi, Missouri, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas A&M. I hope the 12 team tournament adds parity, but days like today make you think, well, there’s only a handful of teams that can win it all (give me – Georgia, Alabama, Texas, and Ohio State, you can have the field).
  3. Don’t forget your own pain: Cincinnati won 38-20. The offense looked good, but will have few quirks to work out with penalties, turnovers, and sloppy play as expected in week 1, but the defense gave up a few big plays on 3rd & long there were some extended drives. Hopefully, this can be worked out in practice, but if this indicative of anything, you don’t want to see this before non-conference games against Pittsburgh (who played well against Penn State) and Miami Ohio (who lost and grinded against Northwestern) before a much harder conference slate where you could be the underdog in most games. Last year, I thought things remained the same when we beat up on EKU, so this year, I am more or less worried if we can make a run for a bowl game.

For tonight, I am going to focus on a smaller slate with larger bets.

  • Alabama / Western Kentucky – Over 59.5 (1.1 units)
  • Texas A&M -3 (2.1 units)
  • Oregon / Idaho – Over 60.5 (1.1 units)
  • Georgia State – +20.5 (1.5 units)

It is week 1 and like with Ohio State (as well as Georgia, Penn State, and Tennessee), I think expect their offenses to make enough of statement as well as get enough points from their opponents to cover the overs. For Georgia State, I expect Georgia Tech to have a little rust considering a week ago today they won a major game against Florida State in Ireland. Yes, they will win, but asking them to win by 3 TDs against an in-city rival is a lot to expect. Finally, Texas A&M, their stadium, although culturally mocked, is one of the toughest environments to play in. Considering their financial investment and dedicated fanbase, someday, they will turn the corner and have a greater national presence. A 12-team tournament will help them out a ton. I expect them to beat ND, who has an easy ride to playoffs, in a coin-flip matchup.

Stay strong everyone, we have a little more football to watch!

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